The complex and rapidly changing nature of today's world means that a project's long-term impact is often subject to external forces that cannot be predicted by a traditional logframe. Relying solely on past performance to inform future strategy is a significant risk. This training course is designed to empower M&E professionals to master scenario planning in evaluations, a forward-looking methodology that helps organizations anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures. By building and analyzing plausible scenarios, participants will learn how to make their M&E systems more resilient, adaptive, and relevant to the unpredictable contexts in which they operate.

This comprehensive program provides a practical, hands-on roadmap for integrating scenario planning into the evaluation process. Participants will gain skills in everything from identifying key drivers of change and co-creating compelling narratives about the future to using these scenarios to refine evaluation questions and stress-test a program's theory of change. The course is a strategic investment for any organization committed to strategic foresight and resilience, ensuring that their projects not only achieve their goals but also remain effective in an uncertain world.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• M&E Specialists
• Strategic Planners
• Researchers
• Foresight Practitioners
• Public Policy Analysts
• Government Officials
• Humanitarian Aid Workers
• Civil Society Leaders
• Consultants
• Grant Managers

Objectives:

• Understand the core principles of scenario planning and its relevance to M&E.
• Master the process of designing a scenario-informed evaluation framework.
• Learn how to identify and analyze key drivers of change.
• Develop a framework for creating plausible future scenarios.
• Build a more participatory and inclusive approach to monitoring.
• Communicate findings to different audiences while managing risk.
• Ensure ethical considerations and safety protocols in data collection.
• Foster a culture of continuous learning and adaptive management.
• Apply scenario planning techniques to a wide range of contexts.
• Enhance the long-term credibility and effectiveness of projects.

Course Modules:

Module 1: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The limitations of traditional M&E
• Defining scenario planning and its purpose in M&E
• The business case for a forward-looking approach
• An overview of the scenario planning workflow
• The difference between a simple and a complex system

Module 2: Foundational Concepts for Scenario Planning

• The importance of a clear and focused research question
• Understanding the context and its impact on the project
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a clear and testable hypothesis
• The "do no harm" principle in an M&E context

Module 3: Designing a Scenario-Informed Framework

• The importance of a clear and focused framework
• The role of a "systems analysis" in M&E design
• Integrating a gender and social inclusion analysis
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• Case studies on effective framework design

Module 4: Identifying Key Drivers of Change

• The importance of a clear and consistent reporting style
• The use of a simple survey and a focus group discussion
• The role of a "social mapping" and a "trend analysis"
• The use of a simple survey and a focus group discussion
• Practical labs on a basic data collection tool

Module 5: Creating a Narrative for the Future

• The importance of a clear and consistent reporting style
• The use of a simple sprint and a project management tool
• The role of a "learning loop"
• The importance of a clear and consistent reporting style
• The long-term implications for the organization

Module 6: Data Collection and Security

• The importance of a clear and secure data collection protocol
• The role of an encrypted mobile data collection app
• The use of a simple and secure database
• The importance of a data backup and recovery plan
• Protocols for handling sensitive and confidential data

Module 7: Data Analysis and Interpretation

• The importance of a clear data analysis plan
• Using simple statistical analysis for quantitative data
• The role of qualitative data analysis methods
• Interpreting findings from a scenario-based perspective
• The importance of data triangulation

Module 8: M&E for a Diverse Audience

• The importance of knowing your audience
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• Designing reports and dashboards for non-technical audiences
• The importance of accessibility and inclusivity
• Case studies on communicating with different audiences

Module 9: Mainstreaming Scenario Planning

• How to integrate M&E into the project cycle
• The importance of a phased implementation strategy
• The role of M&E in the project cycle
• Building a culture of adaptive management
• Case studies on successful integration

Module 10: The Role of the M&E Professional

• Shifting from a technician to a facilitator
• The skills required for an M&E professional
• Managing power dynamics and group conflicts
• The importance of a non-judgmental and empathetic approach
• The ethical responsibilities of the M&E professional

Module 11: M&E for a Diverse Sector

• M&E for a technology project
• M&E for a social enterprise
• M&E for a humanitarian project
• M&E for a climate action project
• M&E for a governance project

Module 12: The Future of M&E

• The role of AI and machine learning in automated analysis
• The potential of blockchain for data integrity
• The use of new data sources (e.g., satellite imagery)
• The rise of complexity-aware M&E
• The long-term implications for the sector

Module 13: CBM and Scenario Planning

• The potential of community-based monitoring with a focus on scenario planning
• Training community members as monitors
• The importance of a participatory approach
• The role of a feedback mechanism for continuous learning
• The long-term benefits of a community-led system

Module 14: Practical Application and Simulation

• A hands-on simulation of a real-world project
• Participants work in teams to design a scenario framework
• Troubleshooting common challenges in data collection
• Analyzing and interpreting a set of data
• Peer review and feedback sessions on framework design

Module 15: Building Your Roadmap

• Creating a customized plan for a new project
• Identifying key stakeholders and securing buy-in
• Developing a phased implementation strategy
• Measuring the ROI and business impact of the investment
• Final Q&A and course wrap-up

Module 16: The Role of a Performance Team

• The importance of a cross-functional team
• The role of a data scientist, a data analyst, and an M&E specialist
• The importance of a clear and consistent reporting style
• The long-term implications for the organization
• The importance of a "performance" framework

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.