The interconnectedness of the modern global economy has made supply chains a pivotal driver of economic performance, and their fragility has become a major source of inflationary pressure. When logistics networks are disrupted by events like pandemics, natural disasters, or geopolitical conflicts, the resulting shortages, delays, and higher transportation costs can directly translate into rising prices for both intermediate goods and final products. This poses a significant challenge for policymakers who need to differentiate these temporary, supply-side shocks from more entrenched, demand-driven inflation. Understanding the anatomy of these disruptions is essential for effective economic forecasting and policy formulation.

This program provides a comprehensive and practical guide to inflation surveillance in a world defined by a new era of supply chain volatility. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the key drivers of supply chain-related inflation, from port congestion and labor shortages to trade barriers and geopolitical risks. The course will address everything from the use of high-frequency data for real-time monitoring to the macroeconomic models used to assess the impact of a supply shock. By focusing on hands-on exercises and real-world case studies, attendees will be equipped to analyze risks, anticipate price shocks, and develop more robust strategies for their organizations.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Economists and Researchers
• Corporate Risk Managers and Strategists
• Supply Chain Managers and Logistics Professionals
• Financial Analysts and Portfolio Managers
• Government Economists and Policy Analysts
• International Trade Specialists
• Academics and Graduate Students
• Senior Management in Manufacturing and Retail
• Journalists and Economic Reporters
• Public Policy Professionals

Objectives:

• Master the core drivers of inflation related to supply chain disruptions.
• Learn to identify and analyze the sources of supply chain shocks.
• Understand the channels through which disruptions affect consumer prices.
• Grasp the complexities of a supply shock vs. a demand shock.
• Develop proficiency in the use of high-frequency data for monitoring.
• Explore best practices for building a resilient supply chain.
• Learn about robust methods for modeling supply chain-related inflation.
• Identify the critical policy tools for responding to supply-side inflation.
• Develop skills in translating logistics data into macroeconomic analysis.
• Formulate strategies for building a more stable and resilient economy.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The Foundations of Supply Chains

• The evolution of a modern global supply chain
• The role of efficiency and just-in-time inventory
• The inherent fragilities and vulnerabilities
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 2: Anatomy of a Supply Shock

• The impact of a pandemic on a global logistics
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The effects of a natural disaster on production
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a geopolitical conflict

Module 3: Transmission to Inflation

• The direct impact of higher transportation costs
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The indirect effects of component shortages
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The impact on a core vs. headline inflation

Module 4: Data for Surveillance

• The use of high-frequency logistics data (e.g., shipping rates)
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The use of satellite imagery and port congestion data
• The challenges of data sourcing and licensing

Module 5: Modeling and Forecasting

• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of a commodity-augmented Phillips Curve
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The challenges of modeling a supply shock
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 6: Policy Responses

• The monetary policy response to a supply shock
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a fiscal policy and targeted subsidies
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 7: Reshoring and Diversification

• The economic drivers of a reshoring trend
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The inflationary impact of a trade barrier
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The challenges of a supply chain diversification

Module 8: The Role of a "Risk and Mitigation" Plan"

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 9: Case Studies

• Case study: The impact of a pandemic on a global supply
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• Case study: The inflationary effects of a conflict
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The lessons from past disruptions

Module 10: Logistics and Transportation

• The impact of a supply chain bottleneck
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of a maritime logistics and trucking
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 11: Corporate Strategy

• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The development of a resilient supply chain
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 12: The Future of Supply Chains

• The impact of a "clear and focused research question"
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"

Module 13: The Role of a "Data Story Map"

• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 14: The Role of a "Clear and Consistent Reporting Style"

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 15: The Role of a "Risk and Mitigation" Plan

• The use of a "clear and focused research question"
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.