In an era of unprecedented global volatility, Executive Scenario Planning is no longer a luxury but a strategic necessity. Traditional forecasting models often fail in the face of complex, interconnected risks, from geopolitical shifts and technological disruption to economic instability. This training course is designed for senior leaders who recognize that the ability to navigate global uncertainty and prepare for multiple plausible futures is the ultimate source of sustained competitive advantage. We will equip you with the advanced frameworks and mindset needed to transform uncertainty from a threat into a powerful tool for strategic foresight and proactive decision-making.

This intensive, five-day program goes beyond theoretical models to provide a practical, hands-on approach to building and using scenarios. Participants will work through real-world case studies, learning to identify weak signals, challenge assumptions, and create robust strategies that are resilient across a range of potential futures. By the end of this course, you will be prepared to lead your organization with greater clarity, confidence, and agility, ensuring that your business is not just ready for the future, but actively shaping it.

Duration: 5 days

Target Audience:

• Chief Executive Officers (CEOs)
• Chief Strategy Officers (CSOs)
• Senior VPs and Directors of Corporate Development
• Board members and corporate directors
• Heads of Mergers & Acquisitions
• Senior public sector leaders and policymakers
• Business unit leaders and general managers
• Senior risk management executives
• Heads of innovation and R&D
• Senior consultants specializing in strategy

Objectives:

• Understand the fundamental principles and value of executive scenario planning
• Identify and analyze the key drivers and uncertainties shaping the future
• Learn a structured methodology for building coherent and compelling scenarios
• Integrate scenario analysis into the strategic planning process
• Develop strategies that are robust and adaptable to multiple future outcomes
• Cultivate a culture of foresight and proactive thinking within the organization
• Improve communication with stakeholders by articulating a range of possible futures
• Use scenarios to challenge assumptions and identify new opportunities
• Lead strategic decision-making in highly ambiguous and uncertain environments

Course Modules: Module 1: The Foundations of Strategic Foresight

• Why traditional forecasting fails in an uncertain world
• The purpose and benefits of scenario planning for executives
• Differentiating between trends, uncertainties, and driving forces
• A brief history of scenario planning
• The role of mental models and cognitive biases

Module 2: Identifying Critical Uncertainties

• Tools for environmental scanning and horizon scanning
• Techniques for identifying and prioritizing key uncertainties
• The importance of stakeholder perspectives and external inputs
• Methods for challenging organizational assumptions
• Moving from data to insights

Module 3: Building Plausible Scenarios

• The methodology for creating a scenario matrix
• Developing a narrative for each scenario
• Ensuring internal consistency and plausibility
• The art of crafting compelling scenario titles
• Creating visual representations of each scenario

Module 4: Scenario-Based Strategy Development

• Stress-testing current strategies against future scenarios
• Identifying "no-regrets" moves and flexible strategies
• Developing early warning indicators for each scenario
• The concept of "robustness" and "resilience" in strategy
• Using scenarios to identify new strategic options

Module 5: Leadership and Communication

• Leading a diverse team through a scenario planning exercise
• Communicating complex scenarios to the board and stakeholders
• The importance of storytelling in making scenarios real
• Using scenarios to foster a shared vision for the future
• Leading with confidence in a state of ambiguity

Module 6: Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

• Integrating quantitative data into the scenario planning process
• Using qualitative insights to enrich scenario narratives
• The role of financial modeling and stress-testing in scenarios
• Combining expert interviews with data analysis
• Measuring the impact of scenarios on business performance

Module 7: Integrating Scenarios into Corporate Governance

• Aligning scenario planning with the annual strategic planning cycle
• The role of the board in overseeing foresight and long-term strategy
• Using scenarios for capital allocation and investment decisions
• Incorporating scenario analysis into risk management frameworks
• Fostering a culture of strategic dialogue and debate

Module 8: Monitoring and Adapting

• Establishing a process for continuously monitoring signposts
• Recognizing when a scenario is emerging or shifting
• The importance of regular scenario updates and revisions
• Creating a rapid-response plan for unexpected events
• Using feedback to refine the scenario planning process

Module 9: Executive Application and Case Studies

• A deep dive into a real-world case study of scenario planning
• Hands-on workshop to apply the scenario planning framework
• Presenting scenario findings to a simulated executive committee
• Peer-to-peer feedback on scenario narratives and strategic recommendations
• Developing a plan for implementing scenario planning in your own organization

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 7 working days before commencement of the training.