Strategic Foresight And Scenario Planning For Government Training Course: Preparing Public Institutions For Uncertainty And Long-term Impact

Introduction

In an age of volatility, disruption, and rapid transformation, governments must evolve beyond reactive policymaking to anticipate the future with confidence. The Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for Government Training Course equips public sector leaders with future-oriented tools and mindset to make informed decisions amid uncertainty. This highly practical program enables participants to anticipate emerging risks, identify new opportunities, and shape long-term strategies that are both resilient and adaptive.

This course draws from global foresight methodologies, combining systems thinking, horizon scanning, and scenario-based planning to support institutional resilience and innovation. Participants will learn to explore plausible futures, map policy implications, and embed foresight into governance, helping their organizations remain agile, forward-looking, and citizen-centric in the face of complex change.

Target Audience

• Government policymakers and planners
• Strategy, research, and policy units
• Heads of departments and public institutions
• Innovation and reform taskforces
• Development and planning commissions
• Crisis preparedness and risk management teams
• Think tanks and public sector consultants

Course Objectives

• Understand the fundamentals of strategic foresight and its relevance to governance
• Identify key drivers of change and emerging trends affecting public systems
• Conduct horizon scanning and systems mapping
• Create and test alternative future scenarios for policymaking
• Use scenario planning to inform policy design and risk mitigation
• Strengthen anticipatory capacity across departments and institutions
• Align foresight with strategic planning and budgeting processes
• Develop actionable insights for resilient and future-fit policies
• Institutionalize foresight practices in governance structures

Duration

5 Days

Course Outline

Module 1: Foundations of Strategic Foresight in Government

• Introduction to foresight, futures thinking, and systems theory
• History and evolution of foresight in public institutions
• Role of foresight in long-term policy formulation
• Key distinctions between planning, forecasting, and foresight
• Understanding the foresight lifecycle

Module 2: Horizon Scanning and Trend Analysis

• Methods for identifying weak signals and megatrends
• Tools for environmental scanning
• Analyzing drivers of change across political, technological, economic, and societal domains
• Creating trend impact matrices
• Building early warning systems in government

Module 3: Scenario Development and Planning Techniques

• Introduction to exploratory and normative scenarios
• Building scenario logics using axes of uncertainty
• Developing rich narrative scenarios for policy testing
• Using backcasting and wind tunneling
• Visualizing futures for strategic decision-making

Module 4: Systems Thinking and Policy Design under Uncertainty

• Mapping complex systems and feedback loops
• Identifying leverage points for systemic interventions
• Policy stress-testing under different scenarios
• Using systems dynamics to understand long-term impact
• Designing flexible and adaptive policy responses

Module 5: Strategic Conversations and Leadership Alignment

• Facilitating foresight dialogues and workshops
• Engaging senior leaders in scenario thinking
• Overcoming resistance to long-term planning
• Embedding foresight into leadership development
• Building coalitions for future-oriented action

Module 6: Integration of Foresight into Governance Frameworks

• Linking foresight to strategic planning, budgeting, and reform agendas
• Mainstreaming foresight across ministries and agencies
• Creating foresight units or embedded foresight functions
• Using foresight to guide regulatory agility
• Institutionalizing scanning and scenario review cycles

Module 7: Measuring Impact and Building Foresight Capacity

• Defining KPIs for foresight-informed policymaking
• Tracking outcomes and learning from long-term interventions
• Training internal foresight champions
• Building a culture of anticipation and innovation
• Case studies of sustained foresight programs globally

Module 8: Designing Future-Ready Public Institutions

• Characteristics of resilient and future-proof governments
• Creating adaptable and networked governance systems
• Fostering agility through experimentation and feedback
• Using foresight to enable transformational policy shifts
• Next steps for institutional foresight leadership

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.