In recent years, the link between geopolitics and economic stability has become increasingly evident, with political conflicts and the use of sanctions emerging as powerful drivers of inflationary pressure. Unlike conventional economic shocks, these non-market forces can abruptly disrupt global trade, fragment supply chains, and create a cascade of price increases for essential goods like energy and food. The resulting inflation can be difficult for central banks to control using traditional monetary policy tools, posing a significant challenge to macroeconomic management and the well-being of households and businesses worldwide.

This program provides a comprehensive and practical guide to understanding the complex channels through which geopolitical events and sanctions are transmitted into domestic and global inflation. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the key risks and their impact on specific sectors, from energy markets and agriculture to global finance. The course will address everything from the use of financial sanctions and export controls to the strategic role of commodity security and the challenges of a fragmented global economy. By focusing on real-world case studies and robust analytical frameworks, attendees will be equipped to analyze these risks, anticipate their inflationary effects, and formulate effective policy and corporate strategies.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Officials
• Corporate Risk Managers and Strategists
• Government Economists and Policy Analysts
• International Relations Experts and Diplomats
• Financial Market Analysts and Investors
• Supply Chain and Logistics Professionals
• Sovereign Risk and Credit Analysts
• Academics and Researchers
• Senior Management in Energy and Food Industries
• Public Policy Professionals

Objectives:

• Master the core drivers of inflation related to geopolitical events.
• Learn to identify and analyze the impact of financial and trade sanctions.
• Understand the channels through which geopolitical risks affect commodity prices.
• Grasp the complexities of energy and food security.
• Develop proficiency in modeling the inflationary impact of geopolitical shocks.
• Explore best practices for managing supply chain fragmentation.
• Learn about robust methods for assessing geopolitical risks.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for sanctions.
• Develop skills in translating geopolitical analysis into actionable policy.
• Formulate strategies for building a more resilient economic system.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The New Geopolitical Landscape

• The shift from an economic to a geopolitical world order
• The use of sanctions as a tool of statecraft
• The impact on global trade and supply chains
• The link between geopolitics and commodity prices
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 2: Sanctions and Their Impact

• The different types of sanctions (e.g., financial, trade)
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The direct and indirect inflationary effects
• The impact on a country's currency and capital flows
• The challenges of circumvention and enforcement

Module 3: Energy Security & Inflation

• The role of fossil fuels in the global economy
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The impact of an energy shock on inflation
• The challenges of a "data story map"
• The role of energy transition and renewables

Module 4: Food Commodity Prices

• The link between food prices and political instability
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of a conflict on agricultural trade
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 5: Global Supply Chain Fragmentation

• The trend towards "de-risking" and "friend-shoring"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The inflationary impact of reshoring
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 6: Modeling Geopolitical Shocks

• The use of structural VAR and CGE models
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The challenges of modeling non-economic shocks
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of scenario analysis and stress testing

Module 7: The Policy Response

• The monetary policy response to a supply shock
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The fiscal policy tools to manage inflation
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 8: Financial Sanctions & SWIFT

• The use of financial sanctions to target a central bank
• The impact on the global financial system
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The rise of a parallel financial system
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 9: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 10: Case Studies

• Case study: The impact of a major conflict on global markets
• Case study: The inflationary effects of sanctions
• The lessons from past geopolitical events
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 11: International Cooperation

• The role of international institutions
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The challenges of policy coordination
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 12: Corporate Risk Management

• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 13: Data and Forecasting

• The use of high-frequency data and alternative sources
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The challenges of forecasting in an uncertain world
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 14: The Future of Global Economic Order

• The trend towards a more fragmented global economy
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of a "program's theory of change"
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The importance of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 15: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.