The housing market is a cornerstone of any modern economy, and its stability is intrinsically tied to the forces of inflation and interest rates. When inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing their policy interest rates, which directly impacts the cost of borrowing for homes. This can quickly erode mortgage affordability, slow down sales, and put downward pressure on home values. For policymakers, investors, and homeowners, understanding this delicate balance is crucial for navigating a market that is not only a major driver of economic growth but also a primary source of wealth for many households.

This program provides a comprehensive and practical deep dive into the complex interplay between macroeconomic policy and the real estate sector. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the channels through which inflation and interest rate movements are transmitted to housing markets, from changes in supply and demand to the psychology of home buyers. The course will address everything from the use of monetary policy to manage housing bubbles to the critical role of macroprudential tools and the challenges of forecasting in a volatile environment. By focusing on real-world case studies of past booms and busts, attendees will be equipped to analyze risks, anticipate market shifts, and make more informed decisions.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Real Estate Professionals (Agents, Developers)
• Mortgage Lenders and Brokers
• Financial Analysts and Investors
• Central Bank Economists and Researchers
• Government Economists and Urban Planners
• Risk Management and Compliance Officers
• Public Policy Professionals
• Academics and Graduate Students
• Corporate Treasurers
• Housing Policy Advocates

Objectives:

• Master the core theoretical links between inflation, interest rates, and the housing market.
• Learn to identify and analyze the key drivers of housing market booms and busts.
• Understand the channels through which monetary policy affects home prices.
• Grasp the complexities of mortgage affordability and household debt.
• Develop proficiency in modeling the risk of a housing market correction.
• Explore best practices for managing systemic risks in the real estate sector.
• Learn about robust methods for forecasting housing market trends.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for housing finance.
• Develop skills in translating macroeconomic analysis into real estate strategy.
• Formulate strategies for building a more stable and equitable housing system.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The Macroeconomic Foundations

• The link between inflation, interest rates, and the economy
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The relationship between real and nominal interest rates
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand

Module 2: The Housing Market Explained

• The components of housing supply and demand
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of demographic trends and urbanization
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The different types of mortgages and financing

Module 3: Inflation and Home Prices

• The impact of inflation on building costs and materials
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The effect on real estate as an investment asset
• The challenges of rising inflation expectations

Module 4: Interest Rates and Mortgages

• The link between the policy rate and mortgage rates
• The use of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The impact on mortgage affordability and household budgets
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The effect on first-time home buyers

Module 5: The Role of Credit Cycles

• The link between credit and housing market dynamics
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The concept of a "credit bubble"
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of securitization and financial innovation

Module 6: Monetary Policy and Housing Bubbles

• The debate over whether central banks should target asset prices
• The use of a "data story map"
• The challenges of using a single tool for multiple goals
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change

Module 7: Macroprudential Policy

• The use of loan-to-value (LTV) limits
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The use of debt-to-income (DTI) ratios
• The effectiveness of these tools in different contexts

Module 8: Systemic Risk Monitoring

• The definition of a systemic risk in the housing market
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The use of stress testing and scenario analysis
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The identification of "too big to fail" financial institutions

Module 9: The Psychology of a Housing Market

• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of herding behavior and market sentiment
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The challenges of emotional decision-making

Module 10: Case Studies

• Case study: The 2008 global financial crisis
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The impact of a housing bubble on a country
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 11: Data and Forecasting

• The use of a "clear and focused research question"
• The challenges of forecasting in a volatile market
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of high-frequency data (e.g., online listings)
• The importance of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 12: The Future of Housing

• The impact of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The challenges of climate change and demographics
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 13: Policy and Regulation

• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of a "data story map"

Module 14: Legal and Governance

• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The challenges of a "clear and focused research question"
• The importance of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 15: The Role of a "Risk and Mitigation" Plan

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.