Emerging market economies face a unique and often more complex set of inflation risks than their advanced economy counterparts. Their reliance on commodity exports, susceptibility to volatile capital flows, and higher levels of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices can amplify inflationary pressures in ways that are challenging to manage. These factors, combined with a higher proportion of household spending on food and energy, mean that external shocks can quickly translate into widespread domestic price instability, which threatens to undermine macroeconomic stability and disrupt long-term growth.

This program provides a comprehensive and practical guide to understanding and managing the drivers of inflation in emerging market contexts. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the structural factors that make these economies more vulnerable and will explore the specific policy tools and frameworks best suited for this environment. The course will address everything from the design of effective monetary policy and the tactical use of foreign exchange intervention to the critical role of fiscal policy and the challenges of anchoring expectations. By focusing on real-world case studies and the latest research, attendees will be equipped to develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate inflationary risks and secure a stable economic future.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Officials
• Financial Regulators and Supervisors
• Government Economists
• Development Finance Professionals
• Risk Management and Compliance Officers
• Financial Analysts and Portfolio Managers
• Academics and Researchers
• Economists in International Institutions
• Corporate Strategy and Planning Staff
• Journalists and Economic Reporters

Objectives:

• Master the core drivers of inflation in emerging market economies.
• Learn to identify and analyze external shocks (e.g., commodity price changes).
• Understand the role of exchange rate volatility and pass-through.
• Grasp the complexities of the policy trilemma in a developing context.
• Develop proficiency in the use of both conventional and unconventional tools.
• Explore best practices for building central bank credibility.
• Learn about robust methods for managing inflation expectations.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for price stability.
• Develop skills in assessing and managing country-specific risks.
• Formulate strategies for building a resilient macroeconomic framework.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The Inflation Challenge in EMs

• The unique structural features of emerging markets
• The role of food and energy prices
• The impact of informal economies and non-monetary factors
• The challenges of weak institutional frameworks
• The link between inflation and poverty

Module 2: Drivers of Inflation

• Demand-pull vs. cost-push inflation
• The role of supply shocks
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The impact of monetary policy on inflation expectations
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 3: Exchange Rate Pass-Through

• The concept of exchange rate pass-through
• The factors that influence the degree of pass-through
• The importance of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The difference between advanced and emerging economies
• The role of a "data story map"

Module 4: The Policy Trilemma

• The conflict between monetary independence, fixed exchange rates, and capital mobility
• The challenges for policymakers in an open economy
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The impact of globalization on policy options

Module 5: Monetary Policy Frameworks

• The use of inflation targeting frameworks
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The challenges of implementing it in developing economies
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 6: Conventional Policy Tools

• The use of the policy interest rate
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of reserve requirements
• The effectiveness of open market operations
• The challenges of a shallow financial market

Module 7: Unconventional Policy Tools

• The use of foreign exchange intervention
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of macroprudential tools
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The effectiveness of quantitative easing in an EM context

Module 8: Fiscal Policy and Its Link

• The relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The concept of fiscal dominance
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 9: Anchoring Expectations

• The importance of central bank credibility
• The role of central bank independence
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The use of communication and transparency
• The challenges of unanchored expectations

Module 10: Financial and Capital Market Risks

• The risk of sudden capital outflows
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The impact on the exchange rate and inflation
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 11: Commodity Price Shocks

• The impact of global commodity prices
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of commodity exports and imports
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The policy response to a commodity price shock

Module 12: Legal and Governance Frameworks

• The need for a strong central bank law
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of accountability and transparency
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 13: Case Studies

• Case study: An EM that successfully managed high inflation
• Case study: An EM that experienced a currency crisis
• The lessons from past financial crises
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 14: Data and Forecasting

• The challenges of data collection and quality
• The use of a "data story map"
• The role of advanced econometrics in forecasting
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change

Module 15: The Future of EM Inflation

• The impact of climate change on food prices
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of digital currencies and financial inclusion
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The future of a "clear and focused research question"

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.