For professionals navigating the complex world of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), mastering PPP Project Financial Modeling with Excel (Advanced) is an indispensable skill, enabling precise valuation, robust risk assessment, and informed decision-making for multi-billion dollar infrastructure and service projects. A meticulously constructed financial model serves as the analytical backbone of any PPP, integrating intricate contractual terms, diverse revenue streams, complex cost structures, and various financing mechanisms into a dynamic tool for evaluating project viability, bankability, and value for money from both public and private sector perspectives. This comprehensive training course is meticulously designed to equip financial analysts, project developers, government officials, and investment professionals with advanced Excel proficiency and specialized modeling techniques to build, audit, and sensitize sophisticated PPP financial models, preparing them to confidently structure, negotiate, and manage the financial aspects of complex PPP transactions. Without advanced expertise in PPP Project Financial Modeling with Excel, stakeholders risk misjudging project returns, misallocating capital, and failing to secure optimal financing, underscoring the vital need for specialized expertise in this critical domain.

Duration: 10 Days

Target Audience

• Financial Analysts and Modellers
• Project Developers and Sponsors
• Investment Bankers and Fund Managers
• Commercial and Development Bank Professionals
• PPP Unit Professionals (especially those in financial appraisal)
• Government Officials involved in project finance and fiscal risk management
• Private Equity and Infrastructure Fund Professionals
• Consultants specializing in financial advisory for PPPs
• Accountants and Auditors involved in PPP valuations
• Professionals seeking to build advanced financial modeling skills for infrastructure projects

Objectives

• Understand the core principles and best practices of financial modeling for PPP projects.
• Learn about the typical structure and key components of a comprehensive PPP financial model.
• Acquire skills in building robust and flexible financial models using advanced Excel functions.
• Comprehend techniques for integrating complex contractual terms into the financial model.
• Explore strategies for forecasting project revenues and operating costs accurately.
• Understand the importance of modeling debt and equity financing structures.
• Gain insights into calculating key financial ratios and returns (e.g., IRR, NPV, DSCR).
• Develop a practical understanding of Value for Money (VfM) modeling and Public Sector Comparator (PSC).
• Master advanced sensitivity, scenario, and Monte Carlo analysis for risk assessment.
• Acquire skills in auditing and de-bugging complex financial models.
• Learn to apply international best practices and industry standards in financial modeling.
• Comprehend techniques for presenting model outputs and insights effectively.
• Explore strategies for managing project finance risks through model analysis.
• Understand the importance of model integrity and governance.
• Develop the ability to confidently build, analyze, and present advanced PPP financial models.

Course Content

Module 1: Introduction to PPP Financial Modeling

• Role of financial models in PPP project lifecycle (appraisal, bid, negotiation, monitoring).
• Key characteristics of PPP financial models: long-term, integrated, risk-driven.
• Best practices in financial modeling (structure, logic, transparency, flexibility).
• Overview of typical PPP project finance structure and cash flows.
• Introduction to advanced Excel features for modeling.

Module 2: Model Structure and Setup

• Designing a logical and intuitive model architecture (inputs, calculations, outputs).
• Setting up global assumptions (inflation, exchange rates, discount rates).
• Building the project timeline and key dates.
• Using named ranges, data validation, and conditional formatting for model robustness.
• Version control and documentation of the model.

Module 3: Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Construction Modeling

• Detailed modeling of construction costs and payment schedules.
• Capitalization vs. expensing of costs.
• Treatment of contingencies and cost overruns.
• Funding of CAPEX from debt and equity.
• Modeling construction period interest and fees.

Module 4: Operating Costs (OPEX) and Maintenance Modeling

• Forecasting operating and maintenance expenses (fixed, variable, step-up costs).
• Lifecycle maintenance and major overhaul costs.
• Escalation mechanisms for OPEX (e.g., inflation indexation).
• Modeling of working capital requirements.
• Sensitivity of OPEX to key drivers.

Module 5: Revenue Modeling

• Modeling different revenue streams: user fees/tolls, availability payments, shadow tolls.
• Demand forecasting and its impact on revenue.
• Tariff adjustment mechanisms and regulatory review.
• Revenue sharing mechanisms with the public authority.
• Sensitivity of revenue to demand and tariff changes.

Module 6: Depreciation, Taxation, and Accounting

• Modeling depreciation methods (straight-line, declining balance).
• Corporate income tax calculations and tax losses utilization.
• Value Added Tax (VAT) and other indirect taxes.
• Understanding key accounting principles (accrual vs. cash basis).
• Creating the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.

Module 7: Debt Financing Modeling (Advanced)

• Modeling various debt tranches (senior, subordinated, revolving credit facilities).
• Debt sizing methodologies (e.g., debt service cover ratio (DSCR) driven, sculpted debt).
• Interest rate modeling (fixed, floating, swaps).
• Repayment profiles (annuity, equal principal, sculpted).
• Debt service reserve accounts (DSRA) and other reserve accounts.

Module 8: Equity Financing and Returns

• Modeling equity contributions and shareholder loans.
• Calculation of Equity Internal Rate of Return (Equity IRR).
• Dividend distribution policy and cash sweep mechanisms.
• Shareholder returns and equity valuation.
• Impact of refinancing on equity returns.

Module 9: Financial Ratios and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

• Calculation and interpretation of key debt ratios (DSCR, LLCR, PLCR).
• Equity returns (Equity IRR, NPV).
• Project-level returns (Project IRR, NPV).
• Other operational and financial KPIs relevant to PPPs.
• Benchmarking against industry standards.

Module 10: Value for Money (VfM) Modeling and Public Sector Comparator (PSC)

• Building a Public Sector Comparator (PSC) model.
• Incorporating risk adjustments and competitive neutrality adjustments into the PSC.
• Comparing the PPP financial model with the PSC for VfM assessment.
• Quantitative VfM analysis.
• Limitations and challenges in VfM modeling.

Module 11: Advanced Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

• One-way and two-way data tables for sensitivity analysis.
• Building complex scenarios (e.g., economic downturn, force majeure).
• Using Excel's Scenario Manager.
• Tornado charts and spider charts for visualizing sensitivities.
• Interpreting sensitivity and scenario results for decision-making.

Module 12: Monte Carlo Simulation (Conceptual and Application)

• Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic risk analysis.
• Identifying probability distributions for key variables.
• Using simulation add-ins (e.g., @RISK - conceptual overview).
• Interpreting probability distributions of project outcomes (e.g., IRR, NPV).
• Limitations and benefits of Monte Carlo simulation.

Module 13: Model Audit and De-bugging

• Principles of model auditing: integrity, accuracy, robustness, flexibility.
• Common modeling errors and how to avoid them.
• Using Excel's auditing tools (trace precedents/dependents, error checking).
• Best practices for model review and validation.
• Documentation and user manual for the model.

Module 14: Presentation of Model Outputs and Insights

• Designing effective executive summaries and dashboard reports.
• Visualizing key financial data and trends.
• Communicating complex model findings to non-financial stakeholders.
• Tailoring presentations for public sector decision-makers and private investors.
• Supporting negotiation strategies with model insights.

Module 15: Case Studies and Advanced Modeling Challenges

• In-depth analysis of financial models from real-world PPP projects.
• Discussion of complex modeling challenges (e.g., refinancing, renegotiations, handback).
• Modeling specific sector-related complexities (e.g., traffic risk, off-take agreements).
• Workshop: Hands-on exercise in building a complex module of a PPP financial model.
• Future trends in PPP financial modeling (e.g., AI-driven forecasting, blockchain for transparency).

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 7 working days before commencement of the training.