In an increasingly interconnected yet politically fragmented world, geopolitical risk has become a primary driver of macroeconomic instability, with profound consequences for inflation. Events like military conflicts, trade disputes, and targeted sanctions can disrupt global supply chains, spike energy and food prices, and create an environment of extreme uncertainty that challenges conventional economic models. These non-market forces can be difficult for central banks and businesses to anticipate and manage, often leading to sudden and significant price shocks that can trigger a broader inflationary spiral. Therefore, developing a sophisticated understanding of geopolitical risk is no longer a niche skill but a core competency for economic professionals.

This program provides a comprehensive and practical guide to the critical field of geopolitical risk surveillance and its inflationary impacts. Participants will learn to identify and analyze key geopolitical flashpoints and understand the channels through which they are transmitted to financial markets and the real economy. The course will address everything from the use of open-source intelligence and scenario planning to the critical role of energy security and the macroeconomic effects of sanctions. By focusing on real-world case studies and robust analytical frameworks, attendees will be equipped to analyze risks, anticipate price shocks, and formulate effective policy and corporate strategies.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Officials
• Corporate Risk Managers and Strategists
• Government Economists and Policy Analysts
• International Relations Experts and Diplomats
• Financial Market Analysts and Investors
• Sovereign Risk and Credit Analysts
• Academics and Researchers
• Senior Management in Energy and Food Industries
• Journalists and Economic Reporters
• Public Policy Professionals

Objectives:

• Master the core drivers of inflation related to geopolitical events.
• Learn to identify and analyze the impact of financial and trade sanctions.
• Understand the channels through which geopolitical risks affect commodity prices.
• Grasp the complexities of energy and food security.
• Develop proficiency in modeling the inflationary impact of geopolitical shocks.
• Explore best practices for managing supply chain fragmentation.
• Learn about robust methods for assessing geopolitical risks.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for sanctions.
• Develop skills in translating geopolitical analysis into actionable policy.
• Formulate strategies for building a more resilient economic system.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The New Geopolitical Landscape

• The shift from an economic to a geopolitical world order
• The use of sanctions as a tool of statecraft
• The impact on a global trade and supply chains
• The link between geopolitics and commodity prices
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 2: Sanctions and Their Impact

• The different types of sanctions (e.g., financial, trade)
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The direct and indirect inflationary effects
• The impact on a country's currency and capital flows
• The challenges of circumvention and enforcement

Module 3: Energy Security & Inflation

• The role of fossil fuels in the global economy
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The impact of an energy shock on inflation
• The challenges of a "data story map"
• The role of energy transition and renewables

Module 4: Food Commodity Prices

• The link between food prices and political instability
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of a conflict on agricultural trade
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 5: Global Supply Chain Fragmentation

• The trend towards "de-risking" and "friend-shoring"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The inflationary impact of reshoring
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 6: Modeling Geopolitical Shocks

• The use of structural VAR and CGE models
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The challenges of modeling non-economic shocks
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of scenario analysis and stress testing

Module 7: The Policy Response

• The monetary policy response to a supply shock
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The fiscal policy tools to manage inflation
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 8: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of a "data story map"
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Module 9: Case Studies

• Case study: The impact of a major conflict on global markets
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• Case study: The inflationary effects of sanctions
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The lessons from past geopolitical events

Module 10: Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT)

• The use of satellite imagery and shipping data
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The role of social media and news analysis
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The challenges of disinformation

Module 11: International Cooperation

• The role of international institutions
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The challenges of policy coordination
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"

Module 12: Corporate Risk Management

• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The challenges of a global business environment
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 13: Data Analytics and Technology

• The use of high-frequency data for surveillance
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of machine learning in forecasting
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 14: The Future of Global Economic Order

• The trend towards a more fragmented global economy
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of a program's theory of change
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The importance of a clear and compelling KPI

Module 15: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.