The distinction between transitory and structural inflation is one of the most consequential decisions facing central banks and policymakers today. An incorrect diagnosis can lead to significant policy errors, either by underreacting to deeply embedded inflationary pressures or by overreacting to temporary price shocks. While transitory inflation is typically caused by one-off events that are expected to fade, structural inflation is driven by more permanent changes in the economy, such as shifts in demographics, labor markets, or global supply chains. A failure to recognize a shift from one to the other can have severe long-term consequences for economic stability.

This program provides a rigorous and practical guide to the critical analysis required to differentiate between these two types of inflation. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the key drivers, analytical frameworks, and policy responses appropriate for each scenario. The course will address everything from the use of core vs. headline inflation metrics and the role of inflation expectations to the challenges of communicating policy decisions in an environment of high uncertainty. By focusing on real-world case studies and the latest research, attendees will be equipped to make more informed policy decisions and to develop more robust risk management strategies for their organizations.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Economists and Researchers
• Financial Analysts and Portfolio Managers
• Government Economists and Policy Analysts
• Public Policy Professionals
• Corporate Strategists and Planners
• Risk Management Officers
• Academics and Students in Economics
• Journalists and Economic Reporters
• International Financial Institution Staff
• Business Consultants

Objectives:

• Master the core concepts of structural and transitory inflation.
• Learn to identify the key drivers of each type of inflation.
• Understand the channels through which each is transmitted to the economy.
• Grasp the complexities of policy trade-offs and decision-making.
• Develop proficiency in the use of both conventional and unconventional tools.
• Explore best practices for communicating policy in an uncertain environment.
• Learn about robust methods for measuring and forecasting inflation.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for price stability.
• Develop skills in translating economic analysis into actionable policy.
• Formulate strategies for building a more resilient economic system.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The Core Distinction

• The definitions of transitory and structural inflation
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The key drivers of a temporary vs. persistent shock
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The difference between a price level change and a sustained increase

Module 2: Transitory Inflation Drivers

• The impact of a supply chain bottleneck
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of pent-up demand
• The challenges of a "data story map"
• The lessons from the post-pandemic inflation

Module 3: Structural Inflation Drivers

• The role of long-term demographic shifts
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of de-globalization
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The challenges of a wage-price spiral

Module 4: Monetary Policy Response

• The appropriate monetary policy for each type of inflation
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The risks of overshooting or undershooting the policy target
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The debate over the "inflation is transitory" narrative

Module 5: The Role of Expectations

• The link between inflation expectations and inflation dynamics
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The challenges of an unanchored inflation expectation
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of a "data story map"

Module 6: Fiscal Policy Response

• The role of fiscal policy in fighting inflation
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The impact of a fiscal stimulus
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The challenges of fiscal dominance

Module 7: Data and Measurement

• The difference between headline and core inflation
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of trimmed mean and median inflation
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The challenges of real-time inflation monitoring

Module 8: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of a "data story map"
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Module 9: Policy Lessons from History

• The stagflation of the 1970s
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The lessons from past monetary policy mistakes
• The use of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 10: Supply-Side Policies

• The role of structural reforms in fighting inflation
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The impact of deregulation and trade liberalization
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The challenges of a "data story map"

Module 11: International Context

• The transmission of inflation shocks across borders
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of exchange rates and capital flows
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 12: Communication and Credibility

• The importance of central bank communication
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of transparency and forward guidance
• The challenges of a "clear and focused research question"
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 13: Financial Market Implications

• The impact on bond yields and equity prices
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The challenges of a yield curve inversion
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"

Module 14: The Future of Inflation

• The impact of climate change and demographics
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 15: The Role of a "Risk and Mitigation" Plan"

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.