The re-emergence of high inflation combined with slower economic growth has brought stagflation back to the forefront of macroeconomic discourse. This unique and challenging phenomenon, where rising prices coexist with high unemployment, defies the conventional trade-offs that policymakers are accustomed to. Standard monetary and fiscal policies designed to combat either inflation or slow growth can exacerbate the other problem, leaving central banks and governments in a difficult position. Understanding the causes and consequences of stagflation is therefore crucial for navigating today’s complex economic environment.

This program provides a rigorous and practical guide to the policy tools and risk management strategies for a stagflationary world. Participants will gain a deep understanding of the historical drivers of stagflation, from supply shocks to structural changes in labor markets, and will explore the limitations of traditional policy frameworks. The course will address everything from the design of a resilient fiscal policy and the use of unconventional monetary tools to the critical role of corporate planning and supply chain resilience. By focusing on real-world case studies of past stagflationary periods, attendees will be equipped to analyze, anticipate, and mitigate the risks posed by this challenging macroeconomic scenario.

Duration: 10 days

Target Audience:

• Central Bank Officials
• Financial Regulators
• Corporate Strategists and Planners
• Government Economists and Policy Analysts
• Portfolio Managers and Investors
• Risk Management Professionals
• Academics and Researchers
• Supply Chain Managers
• Senior Management in Energy and Food Industries
• Journalists and Economic Reporters

Objectives:

• Master the core theoretical and historical drivers of stagflation.
• Learn to identify the key indicators of a stagflationary environment.
• Understand the limitations of traditional monetary and fiscal policy.
• Grasp the complexities of managing supply-side shocks.
• Develop proficiency in the use of unconventional policy tools.
• Explore best practices for corporate planning and risk mitigation.
• Learn about robust methods for modeling stagflation scenarios.
• Identify the critical legal and governance frameworks for policy responses.
• Develop skills in translating economic analysis into actionable strategy.
• Formulate strategies for building a more resilient economic system.

Course Modules:

Module 1: The Anatomy of Stagflation

• The definition of stagflation and its key characteristics
• The historical context of the 1970s oil crisis
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"
• The difference between stagflation and a recession
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan

Module 2: Supply-Side Shocks

• The impact of a negative supply shock on output and prices
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The role of energy and commodity prices
• The challenges of a "data story map"
• The link to labor market dynamics

Module 3: The Policy Dilemma

• The conflict between fighting inflation and unemployment
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The limitations of the traditional Phillips Curve
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The challenges of policy communication

Module 4: Monetary Policy Tools

• The use of interest rates and open market operations
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The challenges of unconventional monetary policy
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of central bank credibility

Module 5: Fiscal Policy Tools

• The role of government spending and taxation
• The importance of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of supply-side fiscal policies
• The challenges of a budget deficit
• The role of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 6: Structural Drivers

• The impact of labor market rigidities
• The use of a "data story map"
• The role of de-globalization and protectionism
• The importance of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change

Module 7: Inflation Expectations

• The role of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The link between expectations and stagflation
• The importance of a clear and compelling KPI
• The challenges of a "wage-price spiral"
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 8: The Role of a "Risk and Mitigation" Plan

• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 9: Corporate Strategy

• The impact of stagflation on corporate profitability
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The role of supply chain resilience and diversification
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard

Module 10: Case Studies

• Case study: The 1970s stagflation in the US
• The importance of a "data story map"
• Case study: The experience of a country that avoided stagflation
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The use of a program's theory of change

Module 11: International Context

• The role of global supply chains and commodity prices
• The importance of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The impact of global demand on domestic inflation
• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The role of a "clear and focused research question"

Module 12: Advanced Modeling

• The use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models
• The role of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The challenges of modeling a new paradigm
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"

Module 13: The Future of Stagflation

• The impact of climate change and energy transition
• The use of a "clear and consistent reporting style"
• The role of a program's theory of change
• The challenges of aging demographics
• The use of a "stakeholder analysis"

Module 14: The Role of a "Clear and Focused Research Question"

• The use of a clear and compelling KPI
• The use of a "risk and mitigation" plan
• The use of a simple scorecard and a dashboard
• The importance of a "data story map"
• The role of a "clear and consistent reporting style"

Module 15: Policy Communication

• The importance of a program's theory of change
• The challenges of communicating in a crisis
• The use of a "stakeholder analysis"
• The role of a clear and compelling KPI
• The importance of a "clear and focused research question"

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Skills for Africa Training Institute Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, airport transfers, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Skills for Africa Training Institute certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Airport pickup and accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: info@skillsforafrica.org, training@skillsforafrica.org  Tel: +254 702 249 449

Terms of Payment: Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties’ payment of the course fee should be done 10 working days before commencement of the training.